eCon 310 — Energy Economy — eCon Analysis

Modeling the balance between Economic Power & Collective IQ

This is the first application of eCon analysis, an alpha test if ever there was one. Caveat emptor.

As the inaugural application of eCon analysis, this is a methodological exploration as much as a socioeconomic brief.

The model behind the graphs turns on several independent variables, some of them factors. Is the model correct and are those independent variables properly set? No, at least some variables are wrong, while the model itself is a V1. Thus the Methodological Exploration warning above.

However, it is directionally correct. Yet it needs lots of work. If you want to help, let me know.

Target Universe: California’s Energy Economy

California’s energy economy was chosen as the initial analytic universe because it is huge yet contained, with local, regional, state and federal socionomic actors. Plus, it is personally imperative to tens of millions of Californians, this author included.

Socionomic Particles

Household Electrons

California’s 11.5 million households form the target set of socionomic electrons. (Socionomic Electrons are introduced in eCon 300 — Particle Physics Model of Socionomic Systems.) Analyzing their intelligence and power in the California energy economy is the central purpose of this eCon analysis, since eCon is people focused. It informs how we can achieve #More4More, with the “4More” being people who get more — individual people who get more and households who get more. #More4More

Governmental Nucleons, aka GovNukes

What matters to each California household is how many GovNukes impact their household as it relates to energy. Hence the population of GovNukes is a per Californian estimate. Are these estimates correct? Nope, but you gotta start somewhere.

Business Nucleons

Businesses are also estimated on a Household Per Californian basis, yet are even harder to estimate than governmental nucleons. The energy economy is ginormous, including all manner of upstream, midstream and downstream players, and that’s just energy production and delivery. California’s energy economy also includes the old and new auto industry, airlines and aerospace companies, appliances, and much, much more.

Religion Nucleons

The sin-sayers of most importance to the energy economy are those who include proscriptions on the use of energy, especially those that proscribe certain kinds of energy. Fossil Free crusaders like Extinction Rebellion are one extreme example. The anti-fracking movement is somewhat less extreme, yet is also a fundamentally religious example.

Operational Properties

Each class of socionomic actor has its intelligence, power, available data and functional bandwidth modeled here. These are the four canonical properties of socionomic actors, per eCon 300 — The Particle Physics Model of Socionomic Systems.

Intelligence: What is the collective intelligence of the population of each actor? Does collective intelligence correlate with the power controlled by that class of actor? If not, how can intelligence and power be brought into balance?
Power: Power is most easily quantified for households and governmental nucleons — purchasing power for households; legal and taxing power, backed up by police power, for the government. It is less easily quantifiable for businesses, as their commercial power is both buy and sell-side. Religions are the least quantifiable, as their moral power must undergo a phase change before taking economic form.
Data & Bandwidth: As defined in eCon 300 — Particle Physics Model of Socionomic Systems, data refers to the information available to a particle, while bandwidth refers to its ability to absorb and communicate information via connections and sensors. The more data and bandwidth available to households, the better their intelligence will function, and the better their use of power will be.

eCon Cases: cCon • Center • dCon

This analysis compares and contrasts three eCon cases for California’s energy economy.

The Center Case models the current situation, notwithstanding that this alpha-test model evidences a pronounced need to be tuned. Tuning aside, can the current situation be properly called the Center? Not really, more like a little bit cCon, but it’s a starting point.
The cCon Case sits to the left of the Center Case, with considerably more power granted to Governmental Nucleons.
The dCon Case sits right of the Center Case, with fewer GovNukes and less power afforded to those that remain.

Particles by Case: cCon Blue • Center Yellow • dCon Red

Fittingly, the cCon Case sits on the left, while the dCon Case sits on the right, with the Center Case in the middle. cCon is shown in blue, dCon in red, and the Center Case in yellow.

California Populations

Scaling Note
The great population disparities across the different classes of particles force the use of logarithmic scaling of the Y axes. Hence, the value differences between bars are greater than they appear. That’s why the bar representing the 11.5 million California Households is only 7X the size of the estimated 18 GovNukes. That 7X disparity reflects six orders of magnitude.
Center Case in yellow
The electron population in the model – California Households – is a known data point: 11.5 million.

The nucleon numbers are SWAGs at best, an estimation process simplified by the “per Household” restriction. Thus, Governmental Nucleons represents the number of agencies with some power over the energy economy, per Household. This includes City, County, Regional, State and Federal. So perhaps those five levels total 18 agencies or areas of enforcement for households in San Jose or San Diego or Redding or Fresno, as shown in the yellow Center Case.

The Business Nucleon population is also restricted to “per Household.” Thus, SoCal Edison would be counted for SoCal households, while the whipping boy that is PG&E would be counted for NorCal. That said, the Center Case number of 100 is more a shot in the dark than even a SWAG, especially given how broad and multifaceted the Energy Economy.
cCon Case in blue
cCon is characterized by more GovNukes than the Center Case and way more than the dCon Case. There’s also fewer and less powerful businesses, an especially trendy notion amongst Sandernistas. Religion nucleons are also up in cCon eCons. Notably, the #NoCarbon doomsdayers flourish under cCon.
dCon Case in red
dCon is characterized by fewer GovNukes than the Center Case and way fewer than the dCon Case.

There’s also more businesses, albeit they are no more powerful on average. The uptick in businesses drives increased competition for household purchasing power, along with increased innovation.

Religion nucleons are fewer in dCon eCons. For instance, #NoCarbon doomsdayers are ignored.

Collective IQ by Case

The massive population of California households has a collective IQ that dwarfs the collective IQ of any class of nucleons, notwithstanding that many of those elite institutions are populated by whip-smart professionals with impressive credentials.

cCon Case in blue
Household collective IQ is assumed constant in each case, however it is fed by less data and bandwidth in the cCon Case. As always, it is the nucleons that change, with a larger population of more powerful GovNukes in the cCon Case.

GovNukes gain some Collective IQ under cCon, yet still don’t hold a candle to the Collective IQ of the people’s army of Household Electrons.
Businesses under cCon are fewer in number and less powerful, evidenced by their 40% decline in Collective IQ from the Center Case and 91% less than they’d have under the dCon Case.
Religions are more numerous and influential under cCon, hence have 50% more intelligence than in the Center Case.

dCon Case in red

Household collective IQ remains the same in each case, yet is fed by much more data and bandwidth under dCon. As always, it is the nucleons that change, with a smaller population of less powerful GovNukes under dCon.

GovNukes shrunken intelligence under dCon brings their IQ into balance with their power, finally.
Businesses under dCon are more numerous and more powerful under dCon, smartly guided by a tripling in Collective IQ vis-à-vis the Center Case.
Religions are fewer under dCon, hence have 50% less intelligence than in the Center Case.

Power by Case

Center Case in yellow
The current power of governmental nucleons over the California energy economy exceeds the power of households and also stands well above business nucleons, notwithstanding GovNuke’s pronounced deficit in Collective IQ, Data and Bandwidth.

cCon Case in blue
The legal, taxing and policing power of the GovNukes reaches leviathan size under cCon eCon. And yet, their low relative intelligence makes their massive power an exercise in disharmony.

dCon Case in red
Intelligence balances power under dCon, with household power up sharply and GovNuke power down more sharply. Business power is also up sharply, as a greater population of businesses compete for household purchases.

Data by Case

Moms, dads, singletons, young professionals and the other socionomic electrons vastly outnumber any class of nucleon, and thus have orders of magnitude more data available to them — the weight of mass numbers at work. Large nucleons like the California bureaucracy emanating from Sacramento and the tech behemoths of Silicon Valley like Google and Facebook operate vaunted big data machines, but can’t compete with the real-world universe of highly distributed data available to eleven million households operating 24/7/365.

cCon Case in blue

Household data is down under cCon, as is business data. GovNuke and Religion data is axiomatically up in any cCon eCon.

dCon Case in red

Household data is way up, as is business data, in the dCon Case. GovNuke and Religion data are down in any dCon eCon.

Bandwidth by Case

Bandwidth is perhaps too technocratic a term, but no other noun captures the connections that socionomic actors have with one another, and with the world around them. Similar to Data above, the collective bandwidth of the people who make up the 11.5 million California Households far outstrips any class of nucleon.

cCon Case in blue

As with Data, cCon Bandwidth is down for Households and Businesses, but up for GovNukes and Religions. GovNuke bandwidth doubles in cCon over the Center Case, yet still pales in comparison to cCon’s shrunken Household bandwidth.

dCon Case in red

As with Data, dCon Bandwidth is way up for Households and Businesses, and down for GovNukes and Religions. Household bandwidth doubles in dCon over the Center Case, and Business bandwidth is up six-fold, as a much greater population of businesses compete for favor with California Households.

Cases by Particle

This cut of the data focuses on each of the four classes of particle to examine how they do under cCon, Center and dCon.

1st Particle - Households

The 11.5 million households in California remains constant under cCon, Center and dCon, as does their massive collective IQ. However, the purchasing power they command varies, growing from a low under cCon to a high under dCon, correlating with a growing level of data and bandwidth available to them under dCon.

2nd Particle - GovNukes

Governmental Nucleons per household are most numerous under cCon, less numerous in the Center Case, and way less numerous under dCon.

The reduced power and intelligence of GovNukes under dCon reflects their smaller population and lessened individual power. In similar fashion, they have access to the greatest amount of data and maintain the most connections under cCon, and the least under dCon. IOW, government is oppressive under cCon and economically liberal under dCon.

3rd Particle - Businesses

Businesses competing to provide energy and related services for each household are most numerous under dCon and least numerous under cCon. Therefore, consumers are in a more advantageous position under dCon.

That set of competing businesses operate with greater collective intelligence and are fed by more data in the dCon case than in the Center and cCon cases. In short, they are better equipped to be entrepreneurial under dCon, thereby more agile and responsive to customer demands. Lastly, the aggregate power of businesses is greater under dCon, albeit that is largely because of their greater numbers.

4th Particle - Religions

Religions, i.e., Sin Sayers about energy, are most prevalent under cCon and least so under dCon. Examples of these energy Sin Sayers include Extinction Rebellion, Just Stop Oil and their ilk. Their power comes from their ability to affect public policy and investment decisions about energy.